Election Statistics

For those who aren’t as hep as me (all two of you) when it comes to tracking what is going on regarding the upcoming election, I offer you Electoral-Vote.com which projects the winner based upon the latest state-by-state polls and the number of electoral votes in each state. The current score there is Kerry 291 to Bush 247. A candidate needs 270 votes to win.

For a different (pro-Bush) bias, see ElectionProjection.com. The score there is Bush 274 to Kerry 264.

Those numbers look eerily similar to the numbers that 2.004k.com posted today (Kerry 264 to Bush 247, 27 Tied). Looks like ElectionProjection is giving all the tied votes to Bush, something that goes against the information we have about elections that involve an incumbent.

And if you aren’t tired yet, check out Electoral College Predictions which runs simulations on the data from 2.004k.com. Based on the simulations, they predict (with 95% confidence) that Kerry squeak out a win.

In a way, it almost makes you glad that the 2000 election was the debacle that it was. Otherwise, who would’ve been motivated to come up with all this data?

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